That equation has started to wobble, and faster than I expected. RIBA puts AI use in UK practice at 41 per cent in 2024, around 59 the year after, 74 this year. Adoption curves are boring on their own. What caught my attention is where it has turned up: not only early design images, but technical resolution, compliance checking, project and information management, and the administration of running a business. That last one is quietly the important one, because the overhead of being a practice is a decent part of why practices need to reach a certain size.
Then GPT-6 Astra landed on 3 September, still on a staged rollout, and that is the thing that made me want to write any of this down.
What matters is not that it is cleverer. It uses a computer. OpenAI's own examples are mundane in a way I find far more convincing than a demo reel would be: filling in forms and updating records, researching something and writing the result into a document, analysing data and plotting it, building a website and running the frontend QA on it, installing and testing software, working out what has gone wrong on screen, producing a spreadsheet or a deck that follows a template you already use.
For thirty years the chain has run person, software, output, and the software has been the bottleneck. Not because the tools are bad. Because somebody has to know them, and that person's time is the ceiling on what anyone else can attempt. Put an agent in the middle of that chain and the ceiling moves.
One number stopped me properly. Astra is reported at 95.9 per cent on BenchCAD, which shows a model a part and asks it to write the parametric CAD code that rebuilds it. Before anyone gets carried away, BenchCAD is bevel gears, compression springs, twist drills and threaded adapters, drawn from engineering standards. It is not architecture and it is not close. But look at the loop it describes. See the geometry, infer the parameters, write the code, run it, look at what came out, go again. That is a fair description of what a computational designer does all day, and it has always required somebody who spent five years inside one application.
The same announcement carries its own corrective, which I appreciated. Astra manages 72.6 per cent on OSWorld 2.0, a computer-use benchmark, and 41.4 per cent on AutomationBench, which sits nearer to sustained professional work. So it can drive the machine. I would not leave it alone with a deadline.
There is a BCG study I keep coming back to here. Consultants with no coding experience, handed generative AI, improved by up to 49 percentage points on work well outside their own discipline, and reached 86 per cent of the benchmark set by BCG's own data scientists. Eighty-six per cent is a lot. It is also not a hundred, and the missing fourteen is roughly where the expertise lives. So an architect who has never opened Houdini does not become a Houdini person. An architect who understands geometry and fabrication and can think computationally might get an agent to do part of a Houdini job without losing a decade to learning the node graph. Two very different sentences, and only the second is true.